# Adjacent News

Adjacent is an indexing and benchmarking company for prediction markets and event contracts.

- Canonical URL: https://dev.adjacent.markets/
- Public data API (no auth, CORS-open, 15-min delayed): https://api.dev.adjacent.markets/api/v1/public
- MCP server (Streamable HTTP): https://mcp.adjacent.markets/mcp (docs: https://docs.dev.adjacent.markets/explore/mcp ; skill: /.well-known/agent-skills/use-mcp/SKILL.md)
- API docs (machine-readable, Mintlify): https://docs.dev.adjacent.markets/llms.txt
- Agent skills index: https://dev.adjacent.markets/.well-known/agent-skills/index.json
- API catalog: https://dev.adjacent.markets/.well-known/api-catalog
- Sitemap: https://dev.adjacent.markets/sitemap.xml

## For agents

1. Full catalog: fetch `/llms.txt` (this host) and the API docs catalog at the Mintlify `llms.txt` linked above.
2. Live tools: connect Streamable HTTP MCP at `https://mcp.adjacent.markets/mcp` (public delayed tier by default; append `?apiKey=` for realtime). Config: https://docs.dev.adjacent.markets/explore/mcp
3. JSON without MCP: `https://api.dev.adjacent.markets/api/v1/public` (no auth, 15-min delayed).

## Sections
- [Indices](/indices?format=md): prediction-market indices catalog
- [Rates](/rates?format=md): reference rates derived from prediction markets
- [Markets](/markets): live market dashboard
- [News](/news?format=md): latest Adjacent News coverage

## Featured indices (live, delayed public tier)

> **Reading the value.** Probability-based Adjacent political indices publish on a **50–150 index scale**, not a 0–100 probability and not a dollar price. **100 is the neutral baseline** (the index party's aggregate win-probability across its tracked races is 50%). Each point above or below 100 is one percentage point of win-probability, so **value − 50 = implied win-probability %** (109 ≈ 59%, 95 ≈ 45%, 130 ≈ 80%). The scale runs 50 (0%) to 150 (100%), so an outcome is only "near-certain" as the value approaches 150 (or 50). **RED** tracks Republican strength and **BLUE** tracks Democratic strength; a value above 100 means that index's party is favored across its races.

| Index | Value | Scale | As of |
|---|---:|---|---|
| [Republican Political Future Index](/indices/red?format=md) | 97.28 | 50–150 scale | 2026-09-17 |
| [Democratic Political Future Index](/indices/blue?format=md) | 106.04 | 50–150 scale | 2026-09-17 |
| [Presidential (R)](/indices/presr?format=md) | 91.50 | 50–150 scale | 2026-09-17 |
| [Presidential (D)](/indices/presd?format=md) | 108.50 | 50–150 scale | 2026-09-17 |
| [Senate (R)](/indices/senr?format=md) | 100.23 | 50–150 scale | 2026-09-17 |
| [Senate (D)](/indices/send?format=md) | 102.45 | 50–150 scale | 2026-09-17 |
| [House (R)](/indices/houser?format=md) | 106.06 | 50–150 scale | 2026-09-17 |
| [House (D)](/indices/housed?format=md) | 106.01 | 50–150 scale | 2026-09-17 |

Full list: [/indices?format=md](/indices?format=md) (73 indices).

## Latest news

- [Decision Day](/article/decision-day): 2026-09-16
- [Clarity](/article/clarity): 2026-09-15
- [Breaking Point](/article/breaking-point): 2026-09-14
- [Adjacent’s Look Ahead: Week of September 14, 2026](/article/adjacent-s-look-ahead-week-of-september-14-2026): 2026-09-13
- [Coming in Hot](/article/coming-in-hot): 2026-09-11
- [Election Bribes](/article/election-bribes): 2026-09-10
- [Fold](/article/fold): 2026-09-09
- [The Houthis Are Escalating](/article/the-houthis-are-escalating): 2026-09-08
- [Adjacent’s Look Ahead: Week of September 7, 2026](/article/adjacent-s-look-ahead-week-of-september-7-2026): 2026-09-06
- [Launching NFL Team Indices](/article/launching-nfl-team-indices): 2026-09-04 · Lucas Kohorst